Housing Starts Surge, But Rentals Are the Drivers

The headline number for housing starts was big, exceeding expectations and sending the home builder stocks on yet another tear.

Tim Boyle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Starts hit 894,000 (annualized) in October, over 50,000 more than the analysts forecast. Housing starts are now at their highest level since July 2008. (Read More: Good News Keeps Coming for Housing as Starts Surge)

“We expect the builder equities will react positively initially, but then fade through the day once the report is fully digested as 'multifamily' was the key driver of the results,” warned Stephen East at ISI.

There is no question that home builders are benefiting from tight supply in the existing home market and overall improved consumer confidence. That was apparent in the home builder confidence numbers released this week, which hit the highest level in six years. (Read More: Builders Bump Up Thanks to Drop in Existing Home Supply.)

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Recovery to Advance in 2013 for CRE

San Francisco Named Top City in 2013 Real Estate Forecast

• San Francisco displaces Washington, D.C., as top-ranked city.
• Apartment sector remains investors' favored property type.
• Secondary markets to gain favor as investors search for yield beyond high-priced core markets.
• Office sector has started to come back; retail "not as bad as feared;" hotels are "surprisingly good."
• U.S. is still seen as a safe harbor for global investment.

 "This is our recovery," Jonathan D. Miller, principal author of the report, said when the Emerging Trends in Real Estate forecast was presented at ULI's Fall Meeting in Denver. "It's a recovery, but anchored in considerable uncertainty," Miller said. He cited Europe's economic troubles, a slowdown in China, and the "fiscal cliff" looming in the United States. But the forecast says modest gains in leasing, rents, and pricing will extend across U.S. markets from coast-to-coast and improve prospects for all property sectors. 

According to survey participants, despite a slower-than-normal real estate recovery track, U.S. property sectors and markets will register noticeably better prospects as compared with last year. Recent job creation should be enough to increase absorption and push down vacancy rates in the office, industrial, and retail sectors, helped by the limited new supply in commercial markets. Robust demand for apartments should hold up, survey respondents indicate, even as new construction ramps up – and even the housing sector makes progress in most regions. Additionally, improving fundamentals should help with rents and net operating incomes, building confidence about sustained growth and strengthening recent appreciation.

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CRE recovery will continue, report says

The nation’s commercial real estate recovery will advance in 2013 with modest gains in leasing, rents, and sales prices, industry leaders said in a report.

Recent job creation should be enough to increase absorption and push down vacancy rates in the office, industrial and retail sectors. Despite being on a slower-than-normal recovery track, U.S. property sectors and markets have “noticeably” better prospects compared with last year, the report said.

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